We know what the old man read the recommendations, I turn to the article is very careful. Today article on the financial crisis on China, Vietnam, the impact of the analysis, the authors conclude there are foreign forces threatening the financial crisis with China's stock market in Vietnam to reap bigger interest. This view is worth the departments concerned for attention. After all, in the financial war era, preventive measures that may be subject to the risk and bear the cost is minimal. This article is of the original, unabridged, the newspaper published out of more than more comprehensive. mm ice (warm the)
guard was short by the Vietnam crisis, China's stock market
mm Shanghai Securities News reported June 17, 2008
Liu Huangsong (Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences researcher, Dr economy)
Since 2007, Vietnam's stock market declined sharply, down as much as 60%, real estate prices have also been a significant decline in the forward price of VND there has been a significant decrease, May consumer price index rose 25.2%, interest rates upwards of 14% or more. Some media reports pursuant to a similar outbreak in Vietnam 11 years ago the East Asian currency crisis, financial crisis, I personally think that it is difficult to do such a conclusion, but the Vietnamese economy is really on a number of difficult problems, economic deterioration is an indisputable fact.
Vietnam is somewhat similar to the current problems in the mid-90s of the 20th century problems. our time there have overheated the economy, stock prices rose, housing prices rose, prices rose. macro-control after the stock plunged, from May 1992 to 1429 fell to 325 in August 1994, down 77%. At that time the real estate market, there have been more substantial adjustment, uncompleted works everywhere. price increase is also great, the consumer price index was nearly 25%, one-year rate reached 10.98%, with preservation subsidies, interest rate higher. At that time insufficient foreign exchange reserves, in order to stimulate exports, the RMB one-time devaluation of U.S. dollar to 1 is about 8.6 yuan, black market, the dollar rose, $ 1 was more than 10 yuan exchange. All these are very similar to today's Vietnam. But no one thinks that time of financial crises. So I think at least this far, we can not believe that Vietnam appeared serious financial crisis. Since Vietnam is a major producer of rice, is the world's second largest food exporter, food completely self-sufficient, therefore, even though Vietnam food prices in the international market under the influence of a more substantial increase occurred, but the basis that there will be food crisis in Vietnam, is probably exaggerated. Vietnamese people worry about is the psychological fear of food enough to eat too, the Vietnamese government propaganda work, since the available to resolve this issue.
In addition, the World Bank's International Comparison Program report, 2005 the official exchange rate is 1 U.S. dollar 15,858.9 VND, while the purchasing power parity theory, one U.S. dollar can be exchanged only VND 4712.7, that , VND is significantly undervalued, in theory, up 236.5% to VND. VND higher than underestimate the extent of yuan in 2005 the official exchange rate is 1 U.S. dollar 8.2 yuan, according to purchasing power parity theory, 1 U.S. dollar 3.4 yuan, rose 141.2% to RMB theory. Thus, despite the recent emergence of large Vietnamese prices, foreign outflow of Vietnam, people rush to buy U.S. dollars of gold, there VND devaluation trend, but I think this is a temporary phenomenon, it is difficult to imagine The national currency is seriously undervalued currency crisis will be serious (unless Vietnam in response to serious mistakes in this issue). In fact, on the financial crisis in Vietnam from certain international investment bank reported a study report and The investment bank has a very clear interest orientation, once in China's Hong Kong Conspire cloud cover hand to rain. full name after buying more shares, sell shares after the full name is empty, and guide public opinion, to seek benefits, ascribed before and after contradiction, but no moral at all, poor reputation in the market. This time an alarmist, but also for the benefit from. the study of such institutions, the reader Bukebufang.
now we are very concerned about the neighbors economic difficulties will affect China? In my opinion, little direct impact on China. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, in 2007 Vietnam's GDP is 70.022 billion U.S. dollars, China's GDP is only 2.15%. (China's GDP in 2007 was $ 3,250,827,000,000.) China-Vietnam trade accounts for 0.5 percentage points. The World Bank estimated that Vietnam's foreign debt this year will reach 24 billion U.S. dollars, which is less than one month increases in China's foreign exchange reserves . a last resort, China will chip in to the rescue, resolving the external debt crisis in neighboring countries. However, if China is not properly handled, publicity mistakes, orientation errors, and would also have a greater negative impact on our economy. This mainly affects mental on. a foreign investment bank's research report was published, some domestic media and the website a lot of reports, overnight, like Rain Comes from Wind, like the Southeast Asian financial crisis re-again, like Vietnam's economic problems will great impact on Chinese economy, as China's economy will soon suffer the fate of the Vietnamese economy further. Our central position from chaos, can not wait to raise the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point, the big bad cause investors to suffer from psychological panic, the stock market fell sharply .6 stock market declines of 10, far more than any one else in the world stock market declines, the total market value evaporated the day 1.7 trillion yuan, 6,000 billion market capitalization evaporated. When the week of market value evaporate 30,000 billion, market capitalization evaporated 1 trillion yuan. wiped out several dozens of Vietnamese stock market. The investment bank may be toast right now celebrated, the report of the financial crisis on Vietnam, its meaning is not primarily in Vietnam, while in China , This time the attack, a landslide victory. utilization reports, using the media, use of mass psychology, coupled with the guidance of funds in the market, sometimes a diversion, sometimes frontal attack, is that these investment banks to seek the interests of the modus operandi is to attack other investment banks country's economic weakness of the modus operandi, our government and the people Bukebufang. Back in the Battle of Waterloo during the ancestors of these investment bank Rothschild to use this trick to earn a wealth of extremely wealthy.
In fact, China GDP is 46.5 times that of Vietnam, not to speak Vietnamese has no serious financial crisis is a serious financial crisis, it is difficult to have a huge direct impact on our country. If China's economic problems, it also China's economy itself must be a problem, there has been unhealthy and unstable factors. The current economic life are indeed some problems, some problems, and Vietnam is similar to some of the problems, and Vietnam are not the same. Similarly, China's real estate market in the past few years, a sharp rise in a row, far beyond the purchasing power of ordinary people; China's stock market also appeared in 2006,2007 substantial rise in the current and the Vietnamese stock market as a significant adjustment, is the value of the process of reunification. not the same as that of foreign capital is constantly flowing into China's foreign trade surplus year after year, increasing foreign exchange reserves, the appreciation of the RMB is facing great pressure; the withdrawal of foreign investment is Vietnam, Vietnam's foreign trade deficit, Vietnam Exchange declining reserves, VND downward pressure. not the same as that of filling the state treasury, the treasury emergency Vietnam. Therefore, the current health of our economy to be much more than Vietnam, is also much greater room for maneuver. As long as the correct handling of our economy The main problem appears to resolutely curb real estate prices, the stock market largely stabilized, while 80 lessons of the 20th century Japan, 90 in Southeast Asia in recent years, the lessons of Vietnam, the impact of foreign capital weaknesses of our economy remain on high alert, rainy day, our economy will not be much of a problem to. Conversely, if allowed real estate prices continue to rise, the impact of foreign malicious lightly weaknesses of our economy, the outlook is less known. more importantly, in the financial markets on, if not promptly eliminated the public's adverse psychological expectations, then spread with the expected adverse psychological and dissemination of psychological self-realization is expected. (original title: calm face of the Vietnamese Posts: Boao swordfight: Who is more ugly than the developers?
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